According to an analyse about the market for crop raw materials, “The market is evidently reacting to the worsening war situation in Ukraine and the prospect of grain being in short supply for a long time yet.” The reason being the production risks in 2022 on the one hand and immensely high wheat prices caused by the strong international demand.
Only on last Tuesday, there have been several price increases of cereal commodities: wheat (from 380 to 400 euros per tonne); rapeseed (from 970 to 990 euros) and maize whose price went up by 12 euros.
Furthermore, this situation is getting worse because of production losses caused by the weather. Especially in the USA, the dry weather deterioates the prospect of American winter wheat. According to current expectations, the harvest will decrease by 21 points.
While there is no possibility to export or to farm the fields in the Ukraine at the moment which causes a decline of wheat harvest from 33 mio tonnes last year to 18.2 mio tonnes this year, the international demand of European wheat stays high, especially from Egypt and Algeria.